Third Quarter Slowdown In Trade
Responding to the latest ONS data on trade, William Bain, Head of Trade Policy at the BCC, said:
“The UK’s broader economic slowdown in the third quarter of the year is clearly reflected in the trade data. September’s export data reflected the continued volatility in goods, in the last few months, with a further large drop in UK exports across the world. Taking Q3 overall, both goods and services exports fell, which is a real concern. There seems little sign so far of the uplift in global trade which economic forecasters predicted for the second half of 2024. The data points to the need for the Government’s promised Trade Strategy to deliver durable improvements in export performance and for stronger support measures to raise sales in key markets. It must also look at removing non-tariff trade barriers with the EU, and strong implementation of new trade deals with fast growing markets. A concerted effort is needed to create the conditions so businesses can generate fresh exports.”
September’s Goods Trade
September was a bad month for UK goods exports with a 9.8% decline in month on month volumes. There was a 10.9% drop in goods exports to the EU – with lower machinery and transport equipment, fuel and chemicals sales. Outside the EU there was an 8.7% fall, led by a decline in manufactured goods, machinery and transport equipment, and chemicals.
Goods import volumes also dropped in September by 3.1%, with a 1.4% fall in goods imports from the EU, and 4.7% decline from the rest of the world.
September’s Services Trade
September was a better month for UK services trade, with import volumes growing by 0.5% in real terms. Services exports were estimated to have fallen only very slightly by £0.1bn (0.26%). But it is clear that the momentum on services exports growth from the first quarter has stalled.
Across The Third Quarter
Taken across the whole of Q3, there were declines in value terms in UK goods trade with the EU and non-EU countries of 2.5% in goods and 2.3% in services, compared with the previous quarter. The drop in goods exports trade with the EU was 3.7% and to non-EU countries was 1.4%.
Similar findings on imports were identified in with a 3.1% drop in goods imports from the EU, and 2.7% from non-EU countries. Imports of services increased by only 0.8% across the quarter.
More detail on the ONS data can be found here.
More info: www.britishchambers.org